Author Topic: Investments other than P2P  (Read 10368 times)

SeattleSun

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Re: Investments other than P2P
« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2013, 01:25:44 AM »
Who here actively manages investments other than their P2P portfolio?  If so, do you think the recent market exuberance has over priced the market or do you think it's fair value/under valued?  What metrics are you using to decide that?

I'm worried that the market is over priced and holding a sizable position in cash.  The 12 month trailing S&P PE ratio is at 18 percent, compared with a mean of 15 percent.  And the Shiller PE Ratio is currently at 23.5 compared with a mean of 16.5.

Thoughts?

rawraw,

Doug Short has a pretty good run down of many different market valuation approaches on his web site (see below) but in all cases the US equity market is over valued by historical standards.  I have to give The Bernank a hand he has reblown the stock market and the housing market too.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/index.php

See the reports in this area of his web site:
MARKET VALUATION
•Four Valuation Indicators
•Regression to Trend
•Is the Stock Market Cheap?
•Crestmont P/E Valuation
•Q Ratio Market Valuation
•Market Valuation, Inflation and Yields
•Valuation Based Market Forecasts



This appears to be one of his latest updates.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
By Doug Short
July 1, 2013
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php

Personally - At this point in time the equity portion of my assets are 50% long and 50% cash but that 50% long is growing towards 60%!  LOL
« Last Edit: July 16, 2013, 03:21:23 PM by SeattleSun »

American in Busan

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Re: Investments other than P2P
« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2013, 07:58:04 PM »

This appears to be one of his latest updates.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
By Doug Short
July 1, 2013
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php

Personally - At this point in time the equity portion of my assets are 50% long and 50% cash but that 50% long is growing towards 60%!  LOL

Why not hold 50% in bonds instead of cash?

That was an excellent link and intro to the  PE10 . Thanks!